Questionnaire & Opinion Survey
Identifiable Bayesian Deep Generative Copulas with Unknown Layer Widths for Data with Arbitrary Marginal Distributions
Deep generative models offer powerful tools for multivariate data analysis, but their black-box architectures are often unidentified and difficult to interpret. We introduce the Deep Discrete Encoder (DDE) Copula, an identifiable and interpretable generative model for multivariate data with arbitrary marginal distributions. The model places a hierarchical directed network of binary latent variables inside a copula framework, enabling flexible dependence modeling for mixed discrete and continuous data. Estimation is based on rank likelihoods, which decouple marginal modeling from posterior inference on the DDE parameters and avoid specifying the marginal distributions. We establish conditions for identification of the DDE copula parameters, ensuring that layer-specific parameters provide meaningful summaries of multivariate dependence. We also prove quotient-space posterior consistency for continuous margins under the exact rank likelihood and treat the extended rank likelihood for tied or mixed margins as a generalized likelihood, with concentration under an additional contrast condition. For computation, we propose a stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm for \emph{maximum a posteriori} estimation, together with initialization strategies that improve convergence. To learn network dimension adaptively, we extend Bayesian rank-selection priors to infer layer-specific widths. Simulations show strong finite-sample performance, and a personality-survey analysis reveals interpretable hierarchical latent structure in complex multivariate data.
Americans really don't want AI data centers close to their homes
Americans really don't want AI data centers close to their homes Americans really don't want AI data centers close to their homes AI companies are spending astronomical sums of money on building data centers as quickly as possible in order to increase their compute power. But the majority of Americans don't want that infrastructure close to their homes, according to a Gallup survey . The polling company asked 1,000 adults across the US about their views on AI data centers, and 71 percent were against having one in their local area. Almost half of the respondents (48 percent) were strongly opposed. On the flip side, just seven percent were strongly in favor of having a data center close to their home.
When Can Digital Personas Reliably Approximate Human Survey Findings?
Jia, Mumin, Chen, Yilin, Sharma, Divya, Diaz-Rodriguez, Jairo
Digital personas powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed as substitutes for human survey respondents, yet it remains unclear when they can reliably approximate human survey findings. We answer this question using the LISS panel, constructing personas from respondents' background variables and pre-2023 survey histories, then testing them against the same respondents' held-out post-cutoff answers. Across four persona architectures, three LLMs, and two prediction tasks, we assess performance at the question, respondent, distributional, equity, and clustering levels. Digital personas improve alignment with human response distributions, especially in domains tied to stable attributes and values, but remain limited for individual prediction and fail to recover multivariate respondent structure. Retrieval-augmented architectures provide the clearest gains, but performance depends more on human response structure than on model choice: personas perform best for low-variability questions and common respondent patterns, and worst for subjective, heterogeneous, or rare responses. Our results provide practical guidance on when digital personas could be appropriate for survey research and when human validation remains necessary.
5812f92450ccaf17275500841c70924a-Supplemental.pdf
We present a brief proof about the local optimality of one-hot encodings in the decision-theoretic framework presented in Section 3.2. We seek to prove that, under assumptions of an identity reward matrix, tokens constrained to a unit hypercube, and gaussian additive noise, one-hot tokens are an optimally robust communication strategy. We only seek to prove local optimality, as one many trivially generate multiple, equally optimal tokens by, for example, flipping all bits. The following derivation uses Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions, a generalization of Lagrange multipliers [17]. We maximize the function, subject to constraints. T>j Ti Ti + ||Tj||2 Ti # ~ยตi + ~ฮปi = ~0 (13) (14) We seek to show that one-hot vectors are an optimum, so we now show that one-hot vectors indeed respect the constraints and set the derivatives to zero.
Evaluating and Inducing Personality in Pre-trained Language Models
Standardized and quantified evaluation of machine behaviors is a crux of understanding LLMs. In this study, we draw inspiration from psychometric studies by leveraging human personality theory as a tool for studying machine behaviors. Originating as a philosophical quest for human behaviors, the study of personality delves into how individuals differ in thinking, feeling, and behaving. Toward building and understanding human-like social machines, we are motivated to ask: Can we assess machine behaviors by leveraging human psychometric tests in a principled and quantitative manner? If so, can we induce a specific personality in LLMs? To answer these questions, we introduce the Machine Personality Inventory (MPI) tool for studying machine behaviors; MPI follows standardized personality tests, built upon the Big Five Personality Factors (Big Five) theory and personality assessment inventories.